Eagles-Saints scouting report and prediction

The breakdown of Sunday's big divisional playoff battle includes three keys to the game and a prediction you might not be expecting.

Eagles quarterback Nick Foles raises his fingers for a two-point conversion attempt against the Chicago Bears.Read moreYONG KIM / Staff Photographer

by Paul Domowitch

Published Jan. 10, 2019, 10:49 a.m. ET

When the Eagles run the ball

The Eagles lost two of their top running backs, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement, to injuries earlier in the season. They had the third-lowest rush average in the league during the regular season, 3.9 yards per carry, and were held to 1.8 yards per carry in the wild-card win over the Bears. In their last five games, they have averaged just 3.0 yards per carry.

Sixteen of their 23 rushing attempts against the Bears gained two or fewer yards. Rookie Josh Adams had been their most productive runner, but he played just one snap against the Bears. Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood split the workload, but neither was particularly effective.

The Saints were second in run defense (80.2 yards per game) and opponent rush average (3.6). Because the Saints jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the teams' Week 11 meeting, the Eagles ran the ball only 12 times. The Saints have held opponents to 3.5 yards per carry on first down, the second-best average in the league. They’ve allowed the second-fewest 10-plus-yard runs (30).

EDGE: Saints

When the Eagles throw the ball

The Eagles have won four games in a row since Nick Foles replaced injured Carson Wentz at quarterback. Wentz had the worst game of his career against the Saints in Week 11, throwing three interceptions and finishing with a career-low 31.9 passer rating. Foles threw five interceptions in the last four games, including two against the Bears. But, he also completed 73.2 percent of his attempts and averaged 8.0 yards per attempt. Foles gets the ball out quickly. He averaged just 2.20 seconds from snap to throw in the last four games.

Alshon Jeffery has been a bigger factor with Foles at quarterback. He had 22 catches and a 17.4-yards-per-catch average in the last four games. He had two big catches on the Eagles’ game-winning drive in Chicago.

The Saints have a good pass rush, led by Cam Jordan (12 sacks), but Foles was sacked just once by the Bears. The Saints are beatable on the back end. They were 27th in opponent passer rating (100.3) and 29th in yards allowed per attempt (8.1).

EDGE: Eagles

Eagles- Saints Depth Chart

When the Eagles have the ball

EAGLES

SAINTS

EAGLES OFFENSE

SAINTS DEFENSE

RDE

Alex Okafor

Marcus Davenport

Tyeler Davison

Taylor Stallworth

Sheldon Rankins

David Onyemata

LDE

Cameron Jordan

Trey Hendrickson

WILL

Demario Davis

Craig Robertson

MLB

Alex Anzalone

Manti Te’o

SAM

A.J. Klein

Alex Anzalone

Vince Biegel

LCB

Eli Apple

P.J. Williams

Ken Crawley

Kurt Coleman

Vonn Bell

Marcus Williams

Chris Banjo

RCB

Marshon Lattimore

Justin Hardee

Josh Robinson

Thomas Morstead

Alshon Jeffery

Shelton Gibson

Jason Peters

Halapoulivaati Vaitai

Isaac Seumalo

Stefen Wisniewski

Jason Kelce

Stefen Wisniewski

Brandon Brooks

Chance Warmack

Matt Pryor

Lane Johnson

H. Vaitai

Zach Ertz

Dallas Goedert

Richard Rodgers

Nelson Agholor

Jordan Matthews

Golden Tate

Mike Wallace

Darren Sproles

Josh Adams

W. Smallwood

Boston Scott

Nick Foles

Nate Sudfeld

Carson Wentz

Jake Elliott

JON SNYDER / Staff Artist

Eagles- Saints Depth Chart

When the Eagles have the ball

EAGLES

SAINTS

EAGLES OFFENSE

Alshon Jeffery

Shelton Gibson

Jason Peters

Halapoulivaati Vaitai

Isaac Seumalo

Stefen Wisniewski

Jason Kelce

Stefen Wisniewski

Brandon Brooks

Chance Warmack

Matt Pryor

Lane Johnson

Halapoulivaati Vaitai

Zach Ertz

Dallas Goedert

Richard Rodgers

Nelson Agholor

Jordan Matthews

Golden Tate

Mike Wallace

Darren Sproles

Josh Adams

W. Smallwood

Boston Scott

Nick Foles

Nate Sudfeld

Carson Wentz

Jake Elliott

SAINTS DEFENSE

RDE

Alex Okafor

Marcus Davenport

Tyeler Davison

Taylor Stallworth

Sheldon Rankins

David Onyemata

LDE

Cameron Jordan

Trey Hendrickson

WILL

Demario Davis

Craig Robertson

MLB

Alex Anzalone

Manti Te’o

SAM

A.J. Klein

Alex Anzalone

Vince Biegel

LCB

Eli Apple

P.J. Williams

Ken Crawley

Kurt Coleman

Vonn Bell

Marcus Williams

Chris Banjo

RCB

Marshon Lattimore

Justin Hardee

Josh Robinson

Thomas Morstead

JON SNYDER / Staff Artist

When the Saints run the ball

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are a lethal running combination that combined for 1,528 yards and 20 rushing TDs. The Saints also have versatile quarterback/running back Taysom Hill, who has averaged 5.3 yards on 37 carries. Ingram and Kamara combined for 174 yards on the ground against the Eagles the first time around.

But if you toss out their meaningless Week 17 game vs. Carolina, the Saints averaged just 3.8 yards per carry in their last four regular-season games. The Steelers held them to 57 yards on 19 carries; the Cowboys held them to 65 on 19 carries. The Saints were fifth in first-down rushing, averaging 5.03 yards per carry.

The Eagles finished 21st in opponent rush average (4.7), but they have been much better against the run in recent games. Their cornerbacks have been very effective on the edges in run support. The Eagles held the Bears to 65 yards on 18 carries and held their last three opponents to 3.0 yards per carry.

EDGE: Even

When the Saints throw the ball

Drew Brees made mincemeat of the Eagles in their Week 11 meeting, completing 22 of 30 passes for 363 yards and four TDs against an injury-ravaged secondary. Since then, the Eagles have managed to stabilize their back end and have gotten solid play out of young corners Rasul Douglas, Avonte Maddox, and Cre’von LeBlanc. The Eagles have held opponents to 6.9 yards per attempt and given up just six TDs in the last six games.

But slowing down Brees and the Saints’ passing attack won’t be easy. Brees finished first in passing (115.7), with 32 TDs and just five interceptions. He threw those 32 TDs to 14 receivers. Wide receiver Michael Thomas led the NFL in receptions with 125. Kamara can line up anywhere in the formation. In the first game against the Eagles, he beat safety Malcolm Jenkins for a 37-yard TD.

The Eagles need to limit the chunk pass plays. In the first game, Brees had eight completions of 20-plus yards. The front four also needs to get more pressure on him than it did in the first meeting.

EDGE: Saints

Eagles- Saints Depth Chart

When the Saints have the ball

EAGLES

SAINTS

EAGLES DEFENSE

SAINTS OFFENSE

Michael Thomas

Tommylee Lewis

Keith Kirkwood

Terron Armstead

Jermon Bushrod

Derek Newton

Andrus Peat

Cameron Tom

Max Unger

Cameron Tom

Will Clapp

Larry Warford

Cameron Tom

Ryan Ramczyk

Jermon Bushrod

Derek Newton

RDE

Michael Bennett

Daeshon Hall

RDT

Tim Jernigan

Haloti Ngata

Bruce Hector

LDT

Fletcher Cox

Treyvon Hester

LDE

Brandon Graham

Chris Long

LOLB

Kamu Grugier-Hill

LaRoy Reynolds

B.J. Bello

MLB

Jordan Hicks

Nate Gerry

ROLB

Nigel Bradham

Nate Gerry

D.J. Alexander

LCB

Avonte Maddox

Sidney Jones

RCB

Rasul Douglas

Cre’Von LeBlanc

Josh Hawkins

Corey Graham

Tre Sullivan

Malcolm Jenkins

Deiondre’ Hall

Cameron Johnston

B. Watson

Josh Hill

Dan Arnold

Tre’Quan Smith

Austin Carr

Simmie Cobbs

Drew Brees

T. Bridgewater

Taysom Hill

Mark Ingram

Alvin Kamara

D. Washington

Zach Line

Wil Lutz

JON SNYDER / Staff Artist

Eagles- Saints Depth Chart

When the Saints have the ball

EAGLES

SAINTS

EAGLES DEFENSE

ROLB

Nigel Bradham

Nate Gerry

D.J. Alexander

LCB

Avonte Maddox

Sidney Jones

RCB

Rasul Douglas

Cre’Von LeBlanc

Josh Hawkins

Corey Graham

Tre Sullivan

Malcolm Jenkins

Deiondre’ Hall

Cameron Johnston

RDE

Michael Bennett

Daeshon Hall

RDT

Tim Jernigan

Haloti Ngata

Bruce Hector

LDT

Fletcher Cox

Treyvon Hester

LDE

Brandon Graham

Chris Long

LOLB

Kamu Grugier-Hill

LaRoy Reynolds

B.J. Bello

MLB

Jordan Hicks

Nate Gerry

SAINTS OFFENSE

B. Watson

Josh Hill

Dan Arnold

Tre’Quan Smith

Austin Carr

Simmie Cobbs

Drew Brees

T. Bridgewater

Taysom Hill

Mark Ingram

Alvin Kamara

D. Washington

Zach Line

Wil Lutz

Michael Thomas

Tommylee Lewis

Keith Kirkwood

Terron Armstead

Jermon Bushrod

Derek Newton

Andrus Peat

Cameron Tom

Max Unger

Cameron Tom

Will Clapp

Larry Warford

Cameron Tom

Ryan Ramczyk

Jermon Bushrod

Derek Newton

JON SNYDER / Staff Artist

Special teams

Punt returner Darren Sproles hasn’t broken a big return since coming back from his hamstring injury six games ago. He’s averaging just 8.3 yards per return, with his longest being 14 yards. Kicker Jake Elliott has missed just five of 32 field goal attempts and has made 17 of his last 18, including a 43-yarder in the playoff win over the Bears. He was seventh in touchback percentage on kickoffs (70.4) and had only two of eight kickoffs returned in the Eagles’ two dome games.

Both teams have outstanding punters. The Saints’ Thomas Morstead was first in net average (43.2) and had just 12 of his 43 punts returned. Opponents averaged just 5.0 yards on returns. The Eagles’ Cam Johnston finished fourth in net average (franchise-record 42.7). He had a 45.2-yard net against the Bears. None of his five punts was returned.

Saints kicker Wil Lutz has made 28 of 30 FG attempts. He had a streak of 26 snapped in Week 16, when a 50-yard attempt was blocked.

EDGE: Even

Intangibles

The Superdome is a can’t-hear-yourself-think place where Foles and Co. will need to rely primarily on a silent count. Brees has a 133.3 passer rating at home this season, including 21 TDs and just one interception. He has a 99.3 rating on the road, with 11 TDs and four interceptions.

The Saints have won their last six home playoff games. Their last postseason loss at the Superdome was more than a quarter-century ago, in 1992. If you’re looking for a good omen, it was to Reggie White and the Eagles.

EDGE: Saints

Prediction

Eagles 38, Saints 34

Key matchups

Eagles RT Lane Johnson vs. Saints LDE Cameron Jordan: Johnson, who was playing with a still-healing MCL in the first game against Jordan, is healthy and has been playing at an All-Pro level the last five weeks. Jordan has a dangerous combination of speed and strength.

ADVANTAGE: Eagles

Eagles CBs Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox vs. Saints WRs Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith: Maddox had some rough moments against the Bears’ Allen Robinson, but overall, he and Douglas have played very well the last month and change. Thomas and Smith combined for 14 catches, 249 yards, and two TDs in the first meeting with the Eagles. But Smith had just six catches for 56 yards in the Saints’ last five games.

ADVANTAGE: Saints

Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery vs. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore: Jeffery had just four catches for 33 yards in the first game in New Orleans, but he has been a much bigger part of the offense in Nick Foles’ four starts, catching 22 passes – 16 for first downs – and averaging 17.8 yards per catch. He’s as good as any receiver in the league on 50-50 balls, and Foles isn’t afraid to give him opportunities.

ADVANTAGE: Eagles

Three keys to the game

Keep it close: The Saints scored on their first three possessions in that Week 11 blowout, putting the Eagles in an early hole and pretty much forcing them to scrap their offensive game plan. If the defense can slow down Drew Brees and Co. early, it will enable the offense to mix in the run, much like against the Bears, and keep the Saints defense honest.

Get tough on first down: Only the Bears and Patriots faced fewer third-down-and-10-plus situations this season than the Saints (46). That’s because they were so productive on first down. They averaged 6.61 yards on first down, the third-highest average in the league. The bad news is the Eagles were 31st in first-down defense (6.41 yards per play). The good news is they held opponents to 5.48 yards on first down in their last five games.

Maximize scoring opportunities: Not counting kickoffs, the more you see of Jake Elliott on Sunday, the less chance the Eagles have of walking out of the Superdome with a win. They need to maximize every scoring opportunity, which means touchdowns, not field goals. They need to be as good in the red zone as they’ve been all season. The Eagles, who were first in red-zone offense last season, finished 17th this season (57.9 percent). But, in their seven games since their first visit to the Superdome, they were much better in the red zone, converting 16 of 25 opportunities into TDs (64 percent).