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Florence expected to regroup; hurricane centers sees ‘increased’ threat to East

Florence, now a tropical storm, is expected to regroup and could have some impacts on the Philly region next week, forecasters say. Meanwhile, two more storms are brewing.

Projected winds from Florence, into next week.
Projected winds from Florence, into next week.Read moreNational Hurricane Center

Florence has had quite a mercurial career, blowing up into a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds on Wednesday and gaining a measure of media stardom, and demoted to a tropical storm with peak winds of 65 mph by the end of the workweek.

While its future remains deeply uncertain, the National Hurricane Center sees it regaining that Category 4 status on Wednesday,  and the projected tracks are raising caution flags along the East Coast, including around here.

"The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased," the center said in its 5 p.m. update Friday. This weekend would be "a good time" for East Coast interests to review hurricane plans, it said.

"At this point, there is the potential for a period of heavy rain and strong winds by the end of next week unless the storm takes a turn out to sea, which still remains a possibility,"  the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly said in its Friday afternoon discussion.

In terms of nailing the path, "it's obviously too far out," Alex Staarman, a meteorologist in Mount Holly, said. But "as of now it could be a very wide range of impacts."

"At the very least we're going to see some dangerous rip currents and swells,"  Staarman said, adding that would be a
"best-case scenario."

After getting roughed up Friday by storm-ripping shearing winds, Florence still was better than 800 miles from the easternmost Caribbean islands and was creeping westward at 8 mph.

That westward movement was expected to continue, representing a significant change in track forecasts that earlier in the week had it heading northward to the east of Bermuda.

Here are two takes on Florence's future:

Compared with the big ones like Katrina, in area coverage Florence is small, and the fact that it has weakened isn't necessarily a good thing, said Staarman.

Computer models have a hard time getting a handle on the weaker ones. "Numerical guidance is not going to sample it very well," he said.

Regardless of what Florence does, Miss America weekend won't be a great one for wannabe Atlantic bodysurfers. A so-called backdoor cool front will drop temperatures and stir up brisk northeast winds, perhaps reaching gale force on Sunday, forecasters said.

In addition, with Sunday's new moon, the tides will be getting an astronomical boost, and some moderate flooding is possible Wednesday evening.

With an increased rip current risk and the beaches unguarded, "it is best to stay out of the surf," the weather service said.

Evidently the ocean is going to stay stirred up for a while. Two more tropical systems are all but certain to form in the eastern Atlantic in the next few days, the hurricane center says, and yet a fifth has at least a remote shot.