Phillies’ slide was (almost) predictable | Marcus Hayes

The intent of this column was to assure Phillies fans that the joy they experienced this season will be longer and fuller in 2019. It still is, for that matter.

Except, I intended to write this column a month ago.

I didn't. Why? Because I wasn't positive. I hoped my baseball guys would affirm my doubts about the team. I know lots of cynics.

I wanted to reinforce my belief that the Phillies were just a few games away from the sort of collapse that inevitably derails baseball teams composed of good, young players who haven't played a full season in the major leagues. Players who hit mid-August and begin to melt. Players who would be facing opponents for the second or third or sixth series; opponents who would have a better idea of their weaknesses, and would attack them. Pitchers bumping up against their previous highs in innings pitched.

But first, just to make sure, I wanted to ask the men I trusted most. So I made a phone call. I had a chat at the ballpark. I had another. The consensus: The additions of catcher Wilson Ramos and infielder Asdrubal Cabrera would offset any performance deficit among position players, and the paranoic management of the young pitchers' usage early in the season would keep them strong and effective through September.

I came away unsure of my original belief. I reconsidered. It was Aug. 17, a 6:05 p.m. start. The Phillies would beat the Mets to move to within a half-game of the Braves, with 23 of their next 29 games against the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals. It was the night that Aaron Nola, the best player on the team, won his 14th game and lowered his earned-run average to 2.24 — but he'd also pitched his 161st inning. He'd never pitched more than 168, and this seemed the perfect time to boldly advise caution against the inevitable despair that soon would descend.

But I was told, no: Nola, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, and even Nick Pivetta were getting stronger. Really? OK. I'd give it another week or two. Heck, maybe the Phillies' collapse was not, in fact, right around the corner.

But then, of course, it was. By Sept. 16, the Phillies had lost 18 of 26.

Nola logged two more starts to bolster his candidacy for the Cy Young Award but, since hitting 176 innings he is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in three September outings. Velasquez, whose previous high was 131 innings, was 9-9 with a 4.05 ERA through 129 innings, but he's 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in three starts since. Pivetta, who pitched 133 innings last season, was 7-10 with a 4.66 ERA through 129 1/3. He's 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA in five starts since. Eflin, who pitched a little more than 60 innings in the majors each of the past two seasons, was effective through 97 1/3 this season: 9-4, 3.70. He's 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA since.

It wasn't just the pitchers. Rhys Hoskins, the team's best hitter, hit .190 with 18 strikeouts in 17 games from Aug. 18-Sept. 5. He'd played 50 big-league games as a rookie last season. Rookie infielder Scott Kingery — who made the team out of spring training despite having only 286 plate appearances at triple A, all last season — remained abysmal.

It's incredible that Hoskins and Kingery survived. Both played out of position. The Phillies moved Kingery, a natural second baseman, to shortstop. Last year they converted Hoskins from first base to left field when they called him up. They're not good.

But again, this is not meant to criticize the players. It is not meant to impugn the methods or strategies of young general manager Matt Klentak and rookie manager Gabe Kapler.

It's meant to emphasize that the last six weeks of a major-league season can be devastating. It is a natural part of becoming a big-leaguer. Baseball is hard, and baseball is a grind. You have to experience it. Now, they have. Next season, they'll know. And they'll be better for it.

This team was never built to win a World Series. Not this season, anyway. Which is why they didn't pillage the farm system to rent Manny Machado or Cole Hamels; they wouldn't have won it all with them, anyway. But we'll address that reality another day.

Rather, this team was built to gauge the capabilities of inexperienced players; to show them the hell of August and September; to see how they reacted, and to move forward accordingly. If that meant a playoff berth, then so be it.

From the manager to the fifth starter, the Phillies performed better than anyone could have hoped. The lineup was riddled with holes, and the bullpen lacked its best reliever — Pat Neshek — for the first three months, but they were relevant for the first five months. In March, I predicted the Phillies would win 81 games. By mid-August, I changed to 88.

They entered Monday night with 76 wins. They were 6 1/2 games back in the NL East, five back in the wild-card race, with 14 games to play. They're a worse offensive team than the 2017 edition. Eighty-one wins seem optimistic.

Nobody thought that a month ago. As it turns out, not even me.

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