Playoff expectations for Sixers should be scaled back a round | Bob Ford

The 76ers will begin their fourth season of the season when the NBA playoffs open for them this coming weekend against the Brooklyn Nets or Orlando Magic.

Their third-seed placement in the Eastern Conference is assured, as is their second straight 50-win record, and for a team that has come so far in such a relatively short period of time, those accomplishments alone should make 2018-19 a success.

The price of success is added expectation, however, and while the level of expectation varies with the observer, the median for satisfying fans seems to be advancement to the conference final, and a good showing there one way or the other.

Sorry, folks, but that’s not going to happen, and while that might be a disappointment, it shouldn’t be a surprise.

The Sixers are good, but they aren’t good enough to survive a second-round series against the Toronto Raptors. They aren’t deep enough. They aren’t solid enough defensively. And they apparently aren’t healthy enough. Even if they are sandbagging the health part, that’s too many negatives to last a series without home-court advantage against a 57- or 58-win team that beat them three out of four times during the regular season.

It has been an odd season for the Sixers, even by their odd standards, and the playoffs will indeed represent their fourth challenge since tipping off on Oct. 15. They played a month with Markelle Fultz in the starting lineup (9-6), before trading for Jimmy Butler and playing three months with him (25-14), and following that up with trade-deadline moves to bring in Tobias Harris and some perceived bench help (16-10).

Twenty-six players have been on the court for the Sixers this season, as coach Brett Brown has dealt with the changes, and tried to piece together a workable rotation despite the nearly constant flux. Just last week, the team brought in veteran center Greg Monroe, which should have set off alarm bells regarding the true condition of Joel Embiid’s left knee.

Monroe’s addition was sold, however, because he could potentially provide backup minutes in a role currently manned by rookie Jonah Bolden, who does not bring size to the table, and Boban Marjanovic, who brings nothing else.

In a way, that situation is a microcosm for the rest of the roster, which has too many players who are either one-dimensional or have played that way. Butler, for instance, was billed as a tenacious defender, but he has been indifferent at best. Maybe he’s saving his juice for the postseason. The Sixers better hope so, because they start two other players — JJ Redick and Harris — who are weak defenders, and another in Ben Simmons who drifts at times.

Whatever their offensive skills, and it is a supremely talented starting lineup in that regard, it is also a lineup that can be exploited by a good coach in a seven-game series. Aside from Embiid, a magnificent rim protector as well as a devastating force on offense, the Sixers are not blessed with two-way players. The bench, to be blunt, is awful. When losing James Ennis, playing for his sixth organization in five NBA seasons, puts a crimp in your rotation, you’re really thin.

That’s why playoff expectations should be scaled back a round. If the Sixers compete deep into the second-round matchup against the Raptors, that would be a fair measure of success. The final work on the roster is still to be done. One more offseason should do it, if the front office makes the right decisions.

I am convinced the team would not have — or should not have, in any case — made the Butler trade, if the front office knew it could land Harris later. At the cost of Robert Covington, their best and most versatile defender away from the basket, and Dario Saric, a nice stretch piece on offense, getting Butler has set back the Sixers. It is a mistake that will be compounded if Butler is signed to a long extension in the offseason, but that’s a story for another day.

The current starting lineup was together for four games after the Harris trade, but has been together in only six of the 22 games since. Embiid missed 11 games solo; Embiid and Butler missed one game together; Butler missed three games by himself; and Simmons missed one game.

Maybe that lack of familiarity won’t matter, but it’s worrisome, even if Embiid’s absences were partially for rest and not entirely because his left knee is bothering him.

Again, it isn’t one thing that will keep the Sixers from meeting the more optimistic expectations (although missing Embiid might be the exception to that). It is more likely all the factors taken together. At this time of year, it doesn’t take much. And, very suddenly, it is this time of year.